Study: PH one of fastest rising economies in 2050

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Sunday, February 22, 2015


THE Philippines is projected to become one of the 32 largest economies in the next 35 years, joining a list of newly emerging and established emerging economies that are helping to push the shift of economic power from advanced economies to emerging markets.

Global consulting firm PwC said the Philippines is among eight newly emerging economies to be included in the latest update of its "World in 2050" report for indicating signs of sustained rapid growth in the long term. The other new entrants are Bangladesh, Colombia, Egypt, Iran, the Netherlands, Pakistan, and Thailand.

"The top ten fastest growing economies are all developing countries: seven are from South and Southeast Asia and three are from Africa," according to the latest PwC update entitled "The World in 2050: Will the Shift in Global Economic Power Continue?"

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The report, with a release date of February 2015, presents long- term projections of potential gross domestic product (GDP) growth up to 2050 for 32 of the largest economies in the world, covering 84% of total global GDP.

"We project the world economy to grow at an average of just over 3 percent per year in the period 2014-50, doubling in size by 2037 and nearly tripling by 2050," it said.

The global economic power shift away from the established advanced economies in North America, Western Europe, and Japan will continue over the next 35 years despite a projected slowdown in Chinese growth after around 2020, it further stated.

China will clearly become the largest economy by 2030, dislodging the United States, while India could challenge the US for second place by 2050.

Indonesia, Mexico, and Nigeria could push the United Kingdom and France out of top 10.

The Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia are also set to be notable risers in the period under review.

In fact, in global GDP ranking in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, the paper said China has already overtaken the US in 2014, added the report.

In this ranking, the Philippines is currently in 28th place out of 32, but predicted to move up to 26th in 2030 and 20th place in 2050.

The Philippines, together with Vietnam, is regarded as a fast-rising economy in the global GDP rankings in the long term, reflecting relatively high projected average growth rates of around 4.5 percent to 5.5 percent per annum over the period.

Of the other countries in Southeast Asia mentioned in the report, Indonesia, currently in ninth place, is forecast to move up to fifth by 2030 and fourth by 2050 "if it can sustain growth-friendly policies," said the paper.

Thailand, occupying no. 21 in the ranking, is seen to stay in place in both 2030 and 2050.

Malaysia, at no. 27, is seen to climb to 24th in 2030 and remain there until 2050. It is projected to grow at around four percent per annum on average in the period to 2050, "an impressive performance for what is already a middle income country."

Vietnam is predicted to move up from no. 32 to no. 28 then no. 22.

These projections assume, however, that emerging markets will follow broadly growth-friendly policies, said the report. "In practice, not all may do so and therefore, not all of these economies will fulfill the potential indicated by the PwC growth projections, although some could also exceed the projections if they can accelerate their investment rates and institutional reforms."

The 32 countries ranked based on GDP at PPP terms in 2014 are China, United States, India, Japan, Germany, Russia, Brazil, France, Indonesia, United Kingdom, Mexico, Italy, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Spain, Turkey, Iran, Australia, Nigeria, Thailand, Egypt, Poland, Argentina, Pakistan, Netherlands, Malaysia, Philippines, South Africa, Colombia, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. (PhilExport)

Published in the Sun.Star Cagayan de Oro newspaper on February 23, 2015.

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